Progress is fragile: 2025 HIV & AIDS epidemiological data
Each year in May, the University of Otago publishes its HIV & AIDS newsletter. Although 2025 marks another year that (recorded) HIV diagnoses are trending downward, some communities are experiencing progress less than others. The annual findings are always a technical read, so we've collated some of the key epidemiological findings here.
In 2025, 233 HIV notifications entered the public health record, which is given in red. 137 people (96 men, 30 women, one transgender woman, and 10 for whom gender was not reported) were first diagnosed overseas, and the place of first diagnosis was unknown for 16 people.
80 people were first diagnosed and notified of an HIV infection in Aotearoa, which is given in purple. This marks another year that the data is trending downward, since 95 new cases were recorded in 2024, and 103 were recorded in 2023.
“This is real progress, and it shows that prevention, testing and treatment are working,” says Liz Gibbs, our Chief Executive.
Fewer diagnoses each year are a reflection of decades of science, advocacy, and community leadership.
Closer inspection
We’re stoked to see that testing drives, education, and efforts to dismantle stigma surrounding the virus may have reduced the number of diagnoses. Since 2010, a benchmark year given in The National HIV Action Plan, sexual health kaimahi across Aotearoa have contributed to a 45% decrease in diagnoses. To that, we see every line of transmission prevented a victory in its own right.
The inverse, of course, is also true: one new diagnosis is one too many. Gay, bisexual, and men who have sex with men are disproportionately affected. Male-to-male sex accounted for 60% of new diagnoses, whilst 28% resulted from heterosexual contact, and 3% from transgender sexual contact. Other means of transmission, including a significant ‘unknown’ subgroup, were captured in the data.
Although local diagnoses overall have been in steady decline since the peak recorded in 2016, the disproportionate increases for Māori highlight inequities that we still need to address.
“In 2025 alone, one in three men who have sex with men (MSM) diagnosed with HIV were Māori,” says Gibbs.
And with almost half of all cases being diagnosed late, it shows that we need to step up our game to reach people earlier.
Late diagnoses & AIDS notifications
The duration that someone has been living with HIV can dated using CD4 T-lymphocyte count – a measure of how compromised one’s immune system is. A “late” diagnosis is standardised to occur at a CD4 count < 350ppm, which would indicate that someone has been living with the virus for several years.
How have 47% of diagnoses been left late? What barriers – be they external or internal – prevented each person from knowing their status? A systematic change which could help reduce late diagnoses is ‘opt-out’ testing in emergency departments and other high-contact healthcare settings.
“Routine, opt‑out testing makes HIV testing normal, not exceptional,” Gibbs says.
Emergency Departments are a critical touchpoint for people who may never otherwise be offered a test. Changes like these can add up to make a huge difference.
The 45% reduction in diagnoses since 2010 is a milestone to certainly celebrate. However, as with all data, the closer we zoom into the figures the more telling our national picture becomes. As recorded HIV infections decrease, our strategies for testing, education, and awareness need to become more individualised.
In 2025, there were 9 AIDS notifications. With early intervention, HIV will not progress into acquired immunodeficiency syndrome; however, in the instances that the virus is left untreated, a CD4 count < 200 (among other diagnostic criteria) indicates AIDS.
Since 1984, back when we went by ‘The New Zealand AIDS support network’, the Burnett Foundation has fought for the rights of people living with HIV. In 2026, we’re continuing to call for greater investment in HIV testing, with a specific focus on community-led services that best meet our people where they are.
The Burnett Foundation Aotearoa gives thanks to The University of Otago HIV Epidemiology Group for your continued insights towards an Aotearoa with zero local transmissions. You can access this and historic data at their portal, HIV Epidemiology Group Dashboard.